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Klaus Nordhausen (TU Vienna)

Extracting conditionally heteroscedastic components using ICA

Venue: HS 7 OMP1

Monday, 04.12.2017

In the independent component model, the multivariate data is assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components, and in independent component analysis (ICA) the aim is to estimate these latent components. In this talk we study an ICA method which combines the use of linear and quadratic autocorrelations in order to enable efficient estimation of various kinds of stationary time series. Statistical properties of the estimator are studied by finding its limiting distribution under general conditions, and the asymptotic variances are derived in the case of an ARMAGARCH model. We use the asymptotic results and a finite sample simulation study to compare different choices of a weight coefficient. As it is often of interest to identify all those components which exhibit stochastic volatility features we also suggest a test statistic for this problem. In this context we show also that a version of principal volatility components (PVC) can be seen as an ICA methods. Finally, we apply the estimators in analyzing a data set which consists of time series of exchange rates of seven currencies to US dollar.

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Institut für Statistik und Operations Research
University of Vienna

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1090 Vienna, Austria

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