Talk from Archives

Conditional Transformation Models

14.10.2013 16:45 - 17:45

The ultimate goal of regression analysis is to obtain information about the conditional distribution of a response given a set of explanatory variables. This goal is, however, seldom achieved because most established regression models only estimate the conditional mean as a function of the explanatory variables and assume that higher moments are not affected by the regressors. The underlying reason for such a restriction is the assumption of additivity of signal and noise. We propose to relax this common assumption in the framework of transformation models. The novel class of semiparametric regression models proposed herein allows transformation functions to depend on explanatory variables. These transformation functions are estimated by regularised optimisation of scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts, e.g. the continuous ranked probability score. Conditional transformation models are potentially useful for describing possible heteroscedasticity, comparing spatially varying distributions, identifying extreme events, deriving prediction intervals and selecting variables beyond mean regression effects. Here, we'll illustrate conditional transformation models applications from different domains.

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